From the lens of 7 yrs in Exchanges, Media, GameFi & BTC Infra.
Another season turns in the crypto market. There’s a familiar chill in the air for the frenetic hot money that defined the last cycle. The speculative heat that once chased the newest, shiniest tokens seems to be dissipating, and in its place, a strange warmth is emanating from the old guard. Coins that many had written off are stirring, showing signs of life that feel both nostalgic and, frankly, a little absurd.
After seven years in this industry — a journey spanning exchanges, media, GameFi, and Bitcoin infrastructure — one develops a certain feel for these market cycles. They are less like predictable clockwork and more like recurring seasons, each with its own character but governed by the same underlying forces. And this season’s defining feature is the uncanny resilience of projects that, by many logical metrics, should have faded away.
I often find it comical. We are meant to be in an industry defined by ruthless innovation, where superior technology and cryptographic first principles render predecessors obsolete. Yet, assets like XRP, Chainlink (LINK), Tron (TRX), and Cardano (ADA) have weathered multiple bull and bear markets. From a purely technical standpoint, or measured by novel applications and crypto-native advantages, one could argue they are unremarkable. Yet, they persist, holding significant market caps and mindshare, mocking the very principles of disruption we claim to champion.
This phenomenon isn’t just a market anomaly; it’s a reflection of something far more fundamental. Watching these assets is like watching certain personalities navigate the industry itself. They are baffling, sometimes illogical, and defy conventional analysis. Their survival isn’t rooted in elegant code or groundbreaking consensus mechanisms alone. Instead, it’s tied to the messy, unpredictable, and powerful force of human nature.
The crypto market is often discussed in terms of technology and finance, but it is, above all, a massive experiment in human psychology. The enduring power of these older coins is a testament to this. Their longevity is fueled by narratives deeply embedded in the market’s consciousness, the tribal loyalty of their communities, and the simple-but-powerful Lindy effect — the longer they survive, the more investors trust they will continue to do so. In a space driven by fear and greed, familiarity becomes a moat.
In bull markets, hype and narratives about future utility can propel projects with weak fundamentals to staggering heights. Conversely, bear markets are defined by fear and pessimism, which should, in theory, flush out the weakest projects. Yet, these particular coins have endured multiple “crypto winters,” suggesting their resilience comes from something other than pure technical merit.
For a time, it seemed the market was maturing beyond this. Hot capital flowed aggressively to new ecosystems and narratives — AI, DePIN, restaking — leaving the old guard to languish. But as the speculative fervor cools, a rotation is occurring. Capital is not just fleeing to safety in Bitcoin or stablecoins; it’s finding a strange solace in these familiar, almost archaic, altcoins. It feels like another turning of the seasons, a predictable yet bizarre migration.
Living through these cycles for seven years teaches you a crucial lesson. The bizarre and the illogical are not bugs in the system; they are features of a market animated by people. This space is a theater of human behavior, where stories can be more powerful than specs, and belief can be a more durable asset than utility.
Perhaps, then, the most foolish act of all is to try and judge this world by logic and common sense alone. To truly understand Web3, we must look beyond the elegance of the systems we build and confront the beautiful, frustrating, and enduring absurdity of the people who use them.