The crypto market stands at a pivotal juncture where macroeconomic forces could send prices soaring to new heights or plunging into prolonged winter. Based on money supply trends, geopolitical risks, and historical patterns, we outline three distinct scenarios for what comes next.
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- Global M2 money supply accelerating (3.86% growth in Jan 2025)
- Fed rate cuts expected by June, injecting liquidity
- Tariff fears resolve by April, removing uncertainty
✅ Bitcoin ETF inflows resume as institutional FOMO returns
✅ Altcoin season kicks off with speculative frenzy
✅ Trump’s pro-business policies spur risk-on sentiment
- Bitcoin: $150K+ by Q3
- Ethereum: $10K+
- Solana, memecoins: 5–10x from current levels
“When M2 expands, crypto follows — just with a 10-week lag.”
- Tariffs initially spook markets, causing summer correction
- Rate cuts delayed until late 2025
- Equities chop sideways, keeping crypto range-bound
🔹 Bitcoin consolidates between 60K−60K−100K for months
🔹 Altcoins underperform until late-year rally
🔹 Fed finally pivots, sparking year-end surge
- Bitcoin: $110K by December
- Ethereum: $7K
- Select altcoins (SOL, ADA…